The Next Age of Uncertainty: How the World Can Adapt to a Riskier Future, 2022

Stephen Poloz is a distinguished Canadian economist renowned for his significant contributions to economic policy and central banking. Born in Oshawa, Ontario, in 1955, Poloz has cultivated a remarkable career spanning public service, academia, and the private sector. He began his professional journey at the Bank of Canada, where he occupied various senior roles in economic research and analysis. His expertise in international finance and monetary policy was instrumental during his initial tenure.

In 2013, Poloz was appointed the 9th Governor of the Bank of Canada, a position he held until 2020. During his term, he adeptly steered the central bank through pivotal economic challenges, including declining oil prices, global trade tensions, and the nascent stages of the COVID-19 pandemic.  He is widely respected for his pragmatic policymaking and his ability to devise strategies adaptable to evolving global challenges.

Poloz’s literary contribution, The Next Age of Uncertainty: How the World Can Adapt to a Riskier Future, stands as a seminal work in Canadian economic literature, offering an insightful exploration of central banking’s historical and strategic dimensions. First, Poloz succeeds in demystifying the often-opaque world of central banking, creating an engaging and detailed archive of the deliberations and processes that shaped responses to a range of crises and global challenges. Unlike some corporately produced sterilized accounts which lack context, Poloz’s candid tone and transparent documentation provide a valuable resource for future policymakers and historians seeking precedent and insight. My favourite parts are the behind-the-scenes conversations/meetings during the COVID crisis as they offer insight on Poloz’s anxiety around his own strategy and context for how decisions were made.

Second, Poloz advances innovative frameworks for understanding economic dynamics, particularly through his "Tectonic Model." This model identifies five key interacting forces—population aging, debt accumulation, income inequality, technological advancement, and climate change—that collectively shape long-term economic trends, policy decisions, and volatility. By incorporating these forces, Poloz transcends conventional historical analysis, presenting actionable models that can inform and improve the practice of central banking.

Finally, Poloz demonstrates a remarkable ability to distill complex economic phenomena into language accessible to readers of all backgrounds (not just those with backgrounds in economics and finance).  This is done via re-world examples like Poloz’s own upbringing in Oshawa that Poloz consistently revisits This clarity sets him apart from many of his predecessors, who have often struggled to effectively convey their messages to both markets and the general public.  Poloz’s work not only enriches the field of central banking literature but also provides a valuable tool for fostering broader understanding and engagement with economic policy.

In conclusion, Stephen Poloz’s legacy as an economist and central banker is marked by innovative thinking, pragmatic leadership, and a commitment to advancing economic understanding. His tenure at the Bank of Canada and his subsequent writings offers invaluable insights into navigating economic uncertainty, addressing global challenges, and fostering transparency in central banking.

Poloz’s book stands out as both a historical record and a forward-looking guide, introducing models like the “Tectonic Model” that help frame complex economic forces. His ability to distill intricate concepts into accessible language bridges the gap between technical expertise and public understanding, ensuring his contributions will influence policymakers, economists, and students for years to come.